The journey to electric

The 2021 Report on Motoring makes it clear that the appetite for choosing an electric vehicle is increasing steadily among UK drivers: 10% say their next car will be fully electric, up from 6% in 2019 and 9% in 2020. But there remain a number of obstacles, either perceived or real, to widespread take-up – from upfront costs to range anxiety and concerns about charging infrastructure.

Decarbonisation of the UK’s transport system is seen as a key step in the country’s attempts to achieve its current ambition of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. Indeed, the UK Government announced in November 2020 that new petrol and diesel cars and vans will no longer be sold after 2030, while a similar ban will extend to new hybrid vehicles from 2035.

Clearly, these policies can only succeed if Britain’s drivers are willing and able to make the shift, en masse, to electric vehicles over the course of the coming decade. This year’s Report examined drivers’ attitudes to electric vehicles in detail, exploring the appeal of such cars to early adopters as well as the concerns expressed by a large number of drivers who own a conventional vehicle about issues such as affordability and convenience. Encouragingly, the Report’s findings on the kind of journeys most commonly undertaken suggest that many people may be worrying unnecessarily about some perceived challenges associated with electric vehicles.

Given the emphasis placed by ministers and carmakers on the CASE (connected, autonomous, shared, electric) framework for vehicle development, it appears that the electric element is considerably nearer to mass adoption than autonomous/self-driving cars or shared vehicles. While the Government has recently announced plans to allow vehicles fitted with automated lane-keeping system (ALKS) technology to use UK roads, these fall well short of the introduction of fully autonomous vehicles.

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The next time they acquire a car, most drivers will still opt for a petrol or diesel model – although the proportion saying they will choose a conventionally fuelled vehicle has fallen steadily over the last few years.

In 2021, 45% of drivers plan to buy a petrol car next – down from 58% in 2017, 52% in 2018 and 48% in 2019 – while just 16% intend to buy a diesel vehicle, which is in line with recent years’ averages but much lower than several years ago. There has been a gradual increase in the popularity of both plug-in hybrids and pure electric (battery-powered) vehicles over the last four years. 

This year, 10% of drivers plan to buy a plug-in hybrid next, and the same proportion (10%) intend to choose a pure electric car – the highest figure on record. Since 2017, the percentage of drivers who say they are going to buy a plug-in hybrid has doubled, while the number intending to buy a pure electric vehicle has increased five-fold.

A further 18% say they intend to buy a conventional hybrid next, but this option has gradually fallen in popularity since 2019, presumably as the availability of plug-in models has increased.

The frequency with which drivers intend to replace their vehicles has declined in the past two years, however – perhaps as a result of the economic impact of the pandemic. At present, only 47% of drivers say they expect to change their current car within the next three years compared to 49% in 2020 and 57% in 2019. Meanwhile, most drivers’ next purchase is likely to be a used car – 51% say they will buy a second-hand vehicle against 25% who will buy a brand-new model (24% say they don’t yet know). These figures may suggest a challenge for electric vehicle take-up, given that the market for used electric cars is still in its infancy.

Of those drivers who do not yet own a pure electric vehicle, only 17% say they expect to switch to such a car within the next five years – down from 19% in 2020. However, a large proportion of drivers (36%) admit they don’t yet know when they will make the switch to electric.

Among drivers who plan to buy a pure electric car as their next vehicle, environmental considerations are particularly important: 66% say they are concerned about the environmental impact of conventionally fuelled cars while 52% cite the impact of emissions on health.

Cost is also a significant factor: more than half (51%) say the price of electric cars is now reasonable and 35% point out that the running costs in terms of tax and fuel are lower than for conventional cars.

But the Report also looked at the reasons why 90% of drivers do not plan to opt for a pure electric vehicle as their next car. Chief among these is a perceived lack of public charging stations: 63% of drivers say this is factor behind their decision not to acquire a pure electric car, although it should be noted that drivers who are able to charge their cars at home will effectively begin each day with the equivalent of a full tank.

Meanwhile, the upfront price remains a sticking point for 57% of drivers, while 53% say they don’t think they would be able to make long journeys as easily as with a conventionally fuelled car – an issue that is tied in with the perceived lack of fast and reliable charging infrastructure, despite UK Government and Zap-Map figures showing a steady rise in public charging points. Almost four in 10 drivers (38%) say they would be unable to charge a car at home – because they only have on-street parking or a parking space where they are unable to use a charger, or because they rent their home and may not be allowed to install a charging point. Meanwhile 24% are worried about the complexity of the charging process itself.

Looking specifically at the range of electric vehicles – the distance they can travel between charges – 44% of drivers say they would require a minimum range of 300 miles before they replaced their current car with an electric vehicle, with on average a range of 360 miles desired by drivers. However, the report also found that 40% of drivers never make trips in excess of 200 miles in a single day, while a further 24% only make such trips once or twice in a typical year prior to the pandemic. Meanwhile almost eight in every 10 drivers (79%) say they would be unconcerned about making local journeys in an electric vehicle. Taken together, these figures suggest that the range offered by the vast majority of electric cars available today could fit into many drivers’ everyday lives with little difficulty – a classic case of the perception of living with an electric car being at clear odds with the reality.

In terms of charging infrastructure, 72% of drivers would want to charge their cars at a public forecourt similar to a petrol and diesel forecourt, while a similar proportion (73%) say it is important for them to be able to pay for charging using contactless methods. Two-thirds of drivers (65%) say it would be reasonable to wait for up to 20 minutes at a public charging station for a 100-mile charge, a finding which highlights the importance of introducing a comprehensive national network of ultra-high-speed 150kw charge points.

Clearly, the Government has a significant role to play in persuading and incentivising drivers to go electric. More than a third of drivers (35%) say there should be a state-backed scrappage scheme for older vehicles to encourage the purchase of zero-emissions cars, while 19% think the Government should abolish VAT on the purchase price of new electric cars.

A further 12% say the current plug-in car grant of up to £2,500 – a subsidy on new vehicles that cost no more than £35,000 – should be increased to £4,000. But the Report suggests that peer reviews and the influence of early adopters are also likely to have an impact: 55% of drivers say they would seek the opinion of a friend, relative or colleague who already owns an electric vehicle before making the decision to buy.

Looking at the current taxation system and how it might need to change to reflect an increase in the number of electric vehicles on Britain’s roads, 54% of drivers think the Government should move away from charging duty on every litre of fuel. Meanwhile, 51% would be willing to be pay taxes based on the number of miles driven as an alternative to other forms of motoring taxation such as fuel duty and/or Vehicle Excise Duty (or ‘car tax’).

Finally, it should be noted that drivers broadly support the Government’s plans to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles from 2030: 51% agree that this target is necessary to reduce road-transport emissions, while only 22% disagree with this policy.